Public policy formulation at the provincial level plays an important role in linking national policies with local conditions and needs. Nevertheless, empirical evidence suggests that provincial decision making systems often experience structural inertia and tend to follow top down and imitative approaches. This exploratory applied study examines the interaction of key forces shaping provincial policy formulation and explores the future trajectory of these processes under a “business as usual” scenario in Zanjan. The research adopts a futures studies perspective and applies Schwartz’s eight step scenario planning methodology. Data were collected through in depth interviews, brainstorming sessions, and expert panels involving eight senior provincial administrators and academic specialists. The findings indicate that the provincial decision making system is influenced by five major forces: inefficiency of the centralized administrative structure, conflicts of interest and external pressures, constraints in the financial allocation system, weaknesses in data based governance infrastructure, and misalignment between national policies and local priorities.These uncertainties point to a possible trajectory of institutional rigidity and stagnation in policy formulation over the next decade. Under such conditions, policymaking is likely to become increasingly reactive and short term oriented, contributing to economic stagnation and a gradual decline in social capital. The results suggest that overcoming this situation requires coordinated institutional reforms, including functional decentralization, stronger data driven governance systems, greater institutional transparency, and participatory policy co creation.