Document Type : Original Article

Authors

• Mohamadreza Molayari ¹
• Hamidreza Malek Mohammadi ²
• Kiomars Ashtarian ³
• Ehsan Soltanifar ⁴

¹ Master of Public Policy

² Professor, Department of Political Science College of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran

³ Associate Professor, Department of Political Science College of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran

⁴ Assistant Professor, Department of Business School of Management, Faculty of Commerce and Business Administration, University of Tehran

Abstract

Given the persistent challenge of institutional misalignment, the dispersion of decision-making centers, and the disconnection between policy-making and implementation layers, a fundamental reconfiguration of the institutional architecture governing Iran’s foreign trade is deemed imperative. This study aims to comparatively evaluate four institutional models the Specialized Ministry of Commerce, the Merged Ministry of Industry, Mining, and Trade (IMT Ministry), the Supreme Council for Non-Oil Exports, and the Upgrading of the Trade Promotion Organization (TPO) through a mixed-methods approach integrating qualitative and quantitative findings. In the qualitative phase, data from semi-structured interviews with experts were analyzed thematically, and the narratives and arguments of both proponents and opponents of each model were categorized into coherent conceptual themes. Based on these results, key governance indicators were formulated to design the quantitative questionnaire. Quantitative data, collected from domain experts, were analyzed using one-way ANOVA and Tukey’s HSD post-hoc test. Findings indicate that the “Specialized Ministry of Commerce” and the “Upgraded TPO” exhibit statistically significant advantages over the other two models in institutional agility, economic diplomacy capacity, and reduction of the policy–implementation gap. The reliability index (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.927) reflected excellent internal consistency of the measurement tool. TOPSIS ranking placed the Specialized Ministry of Commerce at the top position. Integrated analysis suggests that prioritizing institutional authority, mission coherence, and unified leadership favors the Specialized Ministry of Commerce, whereas emphasizing flexibility, rapid adaptability to environmental changes, and innovation highlights the Upgraded TPO as the superior option. In both scenarios, maintaining the coordinating role of the Supreme Council for Non-Oil Exports is strongly recommended.